I tend to disagree with you Vivek. Let's now wait and watch. I believe the SP is not as inflexible as the Left. Yes, it's a shaky wicket, but everyone is guessing the outcome.
Wall Street's collapse: who is next? Business The Observer
True, the US mortgage slump has only widen in last two months, however the banks has shown better than expectation, results, which wasdisplayed by a healthy rally at Wall Street last week. Crude also helped, cooling beyond 130 mark, on rumours of demand slowdown in the US.
However, Marc Faber has something to say in the Month of June 2008 -
"The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer it will go to India.
If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. If we purchase a good car it will go to Germany. If we purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy. The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US. I've been doing my part."
Cheers,
willsurelywin Sayscrude falliung below 100 is only hope :bigear:
There is a good ongoing debate between bulls and bears on Crude, however, it has been winning streak for bears for last 3 weeks, presently Crude is trading at 3 month low level. Oil prices fell to near $120 a barrel today on expectations the economic downturn in the U.S. will erode consumer demand for crude products.
This could be a good news for India, - given India is among the big importers of Crude and cooling of Crude will certainly help India in reducing Fiscal deficit. A day before Moody's had negative view on India's Fiscal deficit, given Crude stays beyond 130 for the year, however which dosent seems now for the time being.
Even today Religare Securities had a positive view, that Commodities will cool down further - they see Crude at double digits around Q3 in the US. These things could help equity markets (emerging markets), when they are trading at 11-12 times book, might pull-back to 14-15 times book levels.
Cheers,
willsurelywin Saysoil is falling fast to 112 so now chnaces of petrol hike becomes less so maybe inflation will at max reach 14 and not 17% which is gr8
Yes Crude cooling off is a great news, however, dont expect petrol prices to go down soon, but if the Crude goes down at 70-75 levels from here, for sure we will see some discount in current petrol prices. IOCL is making 324 Cr loss everyday.
Did anyone saw Finance Minister smiling at PMs Financial advisors, they projected growth at 7.75%, whereas FM thinks India Inc. is still growing at 8.0% + pace!
SGX Nifty takes on domestic volume...saw this article on bloomberg -
With over 90 per cent of hedge funds now preferring to trade the Nifty Futures on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX), volumes on SGX Nifty are climbing fast. The trend is giving jitters to domestic investors and stock brokers, who have to change their positions overnight, depending on the opening and closing of the SGX Nifty.
The SGX Nifty is traded from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. (IST), while the domestic markets open at 9.55 a.m. and close at 3.30 p.m. On all trading days last week, Nifty futures in the domestic market opened more or less in line with the SGX Nifty.
An analysis of last week's open interest (OI) in both the domestic and SGX Nifty futures reveals that the built-up of positions in Singapore has come very close to that in the domestic market, and is threatening to overtake it too.
The overall OI in SGX Nifty on July 24 (there was no trading in Singapore on July 25) for the current month (July expiry) was over 31.4 million against 38.8 million in the domestic market. For the entire week, the OI gap between both the markets has been more or less the same. Analysts say the OI in SGX Nifty is touching its lifetime highs.
A significant increase in the number of contracts at SGX Nifty could also be one of the strong reasons for the lacklustre rollovers that the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty has been witnessing over the past couple of months.
Most of the hedge funds do not indulge in taking naked positions and the opportunity of arbitrage between cash and futures has reached its nadir since the crash in domestic markets. On the other hand, the pick-up of SGX Nifty futures trade has given them a high arbitrage opportunity between the SGX product and the NSE Nifty.
Yogesh Radke, an analyst with Edelweiss Capital Services, said there is a strong possibility of SGX Nifty overtaking domestic volumes shortly. "With the trading volume of Nifty futures coming down on NSE, the impact cost is rising, forcing even some of the big domestic investors to take positions on SGX," he says.
According to sources, almost all the top brokerages are setting up shops in Singapore, which would allow even domestic traders to directly take positions. The SGX product is denominated in dollars as it is a futures on Defty, not Nifty. So, the only thing domestic investors should do is to have their funds parked overseas, which top market operators have already managed.
However, for the retail investors it may not be possible to invest legitimately in SGX Nifty until capital account convertibility comes about.
K R Choksey Shares and Securities' Managing Director Deven Choksey said apart from the reduction in the minimum contract value of the SGX Nifty from $10 to $2, a sharp depreciation in rupee over the past six months too has forced hedge funds to avoid Nifty futures in India. "The foreign portfolio or foreign direct investors directly get currency protection when they use the SGX product for hedging. In the case of Nifty futures, this foreign investor would need to combine a position on it with a position on the dollar-rupee forward market," he adds.
I know everyone has seen variety of regulations in capital markets, various policies by government, monetary policies by central banks, however I never saw anything close to this -
"Since the stock prices in Pakistan have been falling, the Karachi Stock Exchange yesterday came out with a notification that going forward stocks cant trade below the closing prices of 27 th August. So the price as of August 27 th is set as floor price for all stocks until further notification!"
Link:
Notice for All Members
KSE website:
www.kse.com
I know everyone has seen variety of regulations in capital markets, various policies by government, monetary policies by central banks, however I never saw anything close to this -
"Since the stock prices in Pakistan have been falling, the Karachi Stock Exchange yesterday came out with a notification that going forward stocks cant trade below the closing prices of 27 th August. So the price as of August 27 th is set as floor price for all stocks until further notification!"
Link:
Notice for All Members
KSE website:
www.kse.com
Only Pakistanis can think in such a smart way And I thought demand-supply defined everything :)Somehow I am getting a feeling that creation of floors will create its own set of problems.
hmm seeing a lot of action in this thread .. keep it up guys..
i would also welcome trading views on our market my the regualr visitors...
so wats yur view on nifty..
i think it will again drag down to 4200.. where it should see some intermediate support
yes i know a lot depends on global news and markets.. thts wat ppl look at when they wake up.. wher r the global mkts - dow, asia etc..
and where SGX trading..
but i can sense this general weakness in nifty as soon as it reaches the levels close to 4600.. though inflation at 12.1% is tad lower.. and inflation has been showing a downward trend.. dont think it will do much to pep up the mkts..
though nowadays u never know.. some good news from global giants leads to a sharp rally in nifty.. but i believe the rallies are short-lived and the fall is painful.. it will take time for the pain to ease and a strong upmove is far away methinks
so go short
Markets are getting fun now; people having forgotten crude and following up the LB news.:laugh:
hmm seeing a lot of action in this thread .. keep it up guys..
i would also welcome trading views on our market my the regualr visitors...
so wats yur view on nifty..
i think it will again drag down to 4200.. where it should see some intermediate support
yes i know a lot depends on global news and markets.. thts wat ppl look at when they wake up.. wher r the global mkts - dow, asia etc..
and where SGX trading..
but i can sense this general weakness in nifty as soon as it reaches the levels close to 4600.. though inflation at 12.1% is tad lower.. and inflation has been showing a downward trend.. dont think it will do much to pep up the mkts..
though nowadays u never know.. some good news from global giants leads to a sharp rally in nifty.. but i believe the rallies are short-lived and the fall is painful.. it will take time for the pain to ease and a strong upmove is far away methinks
so go short
Good call
why the hell is ruppe weakening against thge dollar and now 47?
when usa economy is going down RS shd have become strong and rwsched 37?
1. Mkts are irrational :huh:
2. Mkts are cyclical :huh:
dude i agree with yur rationale.. theres frankly no reason for this sudden strentgh tht the USD has been witnessing since the past 3-4 weeks
Rather India is the safest country this credit squeeze
Also our interest rates are much higher(9%) as compared to US(2%)
yes one reason is the lack of inflows, which was the main reason why rupee was strengthening.. and which have dried up now
1. Mkts are irrational :huh:
2. Mkts are cyclical :huh:
dude i agree with yur rationale.. theres frankly no reason for this sudden strentgh tht the USD has been witnessing since the past 3-4 weeks
Rather India is the safest country this credit squeeze
Also our interest rates are much higher(9%) as compared to US(2%)
yes one reason is the lack of inflows, which was the main reason why rupee was strengthening.. and which have dried up now
In continuation market today............:-:-.........
Same factors were being discussed as being harmless when market surges and again they blame same factors for a sudden fall, this market is turning more mysterious than Ajanta Medis's deliveries. 😉
Financial market is full of mysteries the reason behind Rupee weakening against dollar (though the business prospect in India are a lot safe this time)
is because of the increased demand of dollars since US in facing the financial crisis and the basic rule support the point that when demand is high and supply is less then there will be appreciation in the value. that holds true with the currency too.
And the reason that Indian IT comapanies are not benefitted from this appreciation is that they have spent most of their reserve in hedging at the time when the rupee was strong. SO they dont have sufficient to hedge this time
May be in the near future you will see some strenghtening in rupee but indians market need to out perform first.
Each time there is a fall in sensex and nifty, we face more n more rumors. Actually the correct answer to your question will be the situation is totally uncertain.
BUt let me make you aware of the current situations The FIIs are illiquid so to maintain their liquidity they are selling in the indian and other markets because of which this fall has been seen. But now the condition may improve from here now because the govt. has removed the barrier for the P-notes of 40% so as to attract more and more FII investments.
Futher the CRR is reduced by 50 basis pts so the liquidity of banks will futher increase and the interests rates may be reduces by 50 basis pts which will help the reality stocks, automobile stocks.
But again a big but comes here the market has lost almost 10,000 points since Jan'08 so the sentiment has been badly affected. So each time the market will show the up trend. we will see profit booking at higher levels. So to normalize the market sentiment we need some more powerful positive global clues too.
This ios not the first time in india that we are facing this problem. We have seen this problem in 90s too when the avg GDP of india reduced from the avg of 7.5 to avg of 5-6 % (although it was not bad). We are again facing this problem but this time we are more prepared to face the situation.
To be precise to your point market has a strong support near 10,000 so lets see what happens in the future. All we can do is just hope for the best. What ever be the market situation, it is a very good opportunity to enter in some of the stocks. Wait for the next post. I will give names of few such companies who are under valued but their fundamentals are strong.
Today only I read it in the news paper the top companies according to market capital has lost its more than half market capitals. Except RIL all the other have lost more market cap. then they have right now.
mannnnnnnnnn sensex crashed 800 pounts again now 10300
kya yaar will it come to 8000 in a month or wat indian story totally busted?:neutral:
Dude b+ but at this stage we can't say anything.
Statements given by few people/ organisations:-
1. There is not any fundamental problem with the Indian Financial Market- FInance minister.
2. The world financial economy is not going to improve before 2010 - Interenational Monetary fund(IMF).
3. you should invest in the mutual fund keeping in mind the minimum time frame of 3-5 years - Reliace Securities.
4. There is not any liquidity problem and if so then its temporary- UCO /Indian/ bank.
5. Interest rates need to be cut down. - again many banks
what i am trying to say is India is currently undergoing a vicious circle. When you cut CRR the liquidity increases but on the other hand inflation controlling becomes a challenging task. And when inflation controlling is done then there is not enough liquidity.
The finance minister clearly said that fundamentally our market is strong but the public sentiment is highly negative this time. Had the fundamental problem been with the indian markets then DII would have not been investing.
FIIs are on the other hand selling there 2-3 years old holdings because they need money to clear there debts but they need dollars to clear there debt. So after getting Rs. from indian markets they need to convert them to dollars because of which the dollar is seeing buying. And as a result of this the dollar is appreciating against rupees.
But still it cant be said that the market will touch 8000 or not. It may even see some consolidation in the range of 10500 - 11800 points
cheers
Dude b+ but at this stage we can't say anything.
Statements given by few people/ organisations:-
1. There is not any fundamental problem with the Indian Financial Market- FInance minister.
2. The world financial economy is not going to improve before 2010 - Interenational Monetary fund(IMF).
3. you should invest in the mutual fund keeping in mind the minimum time frame of 3-5 years - Reliace Securities.
4. There is not any liquidity problem and if so then its temporary- UCO /Indian/ bank.
5. Interest rates need to be cut down. - again many banks
what i am trying to say is India is currently undergoing a vicious circle. When you cut CRR the liquidity increases but on the other hand inflation controlling becomes a challenging task. And when inflation controlling is done then there is not enough liquidity.
The finance minister clearly said that fundamentally our market is strong but the public sentiment is highly negative this time. Had the fundamental problem been with the indian markets then DII would have not been investing.
FIIs are on the other hand selling there 2-3 years old holdings because they need money to clear there debts but they need dollars to clear there debt. So after getting Rs. from indian markets they need to convert them to dollars because of which the dollar is seeing buying. And as a result of this the dollar is appreciating against rupees.
But still it cant be said that the market will touch 8000 or not. It may even see some consolidation in the range of 10500 - 11800 points
cheers
Another perspective that could be seen here is that till now only FIIs n foriegn investors are drawing out their money...but there are talks that Indian mutual funds and banks borrowing in money market for as high as 17% which clearly indicates the situation of market and its just a matter of time that these mutual funds could start selling their stocks to ease the redemption pressure on them like SBI Mutual Funds...there r some measures taken by government like pn relaxation n CRR reduction but still one has to be wary of the market situation...
himanshu_989 SaysAnother perspective that could be seen here is that till now only FIIs n foriegn investors are drawing out their money...but there are talks that Indian mutual funds and banks borrowing in money market for as high as 17% which clearly indicates the situation of market and its just a matter of time that these mutual funds could start selling their stocks to ease the redemption pressure on them like SBI Mutual Funds...there r some measures taken by government like pn relaxation n CRR reduction but still one has to be wary of the market situation...
yeah you are correct even the banks have reached their maximum limit of 25% for the SLR. The RBI will have to act on this and should extend the limit.
Can someone suggest some good companies to invest at this point of time.
Dhaval Patel SaysCan someone suggest some good companies to invest at this point of time.
hi bhai,
you can have a look at the blue chip companies like reliance L&T; DLF etc,
but only for a long term perspective...