satyamfiredme Sayssensex should fall to 8000 soon way its crashing
Friend do u really enjoy each time the market falls.???? I think in any situation we should look for the optimistic point of views
Friend do u really enjoy each time the market falls.???? I think in any situation we should look for the optimistic point of views
Those who think that RBI, SEBI and other bodies are made to say what the government wants may be true but let me tell them these are autonomous bodies, they are there even at the time of anarchy.
Is it ? Do you think SEBI and RBI could ever contradict FM's statement...I wonder if that is possible, lets take up few examples, before today's credit policy why RBI governer had to rush to FM's office to decide what has to be done next ? He is far more qualified economist than FM, he dosent need his consent to do things, when we are in a middile of significant turmoil. Even SEBI introduced P notes, only after FM made a public statement in October last year, regarding norms, which was later elaborated by SEBI, in a press conference.
Each index has some offect of global financial situation, but is it always same. offcourse not. By making this statement we are generalising things. So those who think that its because the FTSE, Dow, Shanghai Index are trading at the level of year 2004 then Indian markets should also trade at those level or will trade at those levels. I want to ask him one question. Is every situation same in the indexes you mentioned and indian index.
FII investment in china is more than in India, so as the FII were under heavy debts they had to start selling to meet their obligations. Thus the effect was more prominent on shanghai index. And need less to comment on FTSe and dow and NAsdaq everyone knows about them. In a bull run Indian markets outperformed every other market. Indian markets had a YOY return of around 40%, while the china had 30%. And other markets were in single digits while Japan could not even reach postive figure.
India and China are emerging markets - they have signifcant inflows from mature markets - which includes equity / bond / credit markets in the US and Europe. Leave alone the equity markets for the time being, the credit markets - CDX indices in the US {CDX.IG, CDX.HY, CDX.XO} have trading volumes close to 70 trillion USD, which is 70 times market cap of BSE. Please note this is only a small segment of US credit markets, and in addition to this, India is doing far worse than China, which is very much evident from the 2Q results released by few companies in India - yesterday and day before. If you think, we are more resilient than China then I guess you'll be on the loosing side after few days. Indian markets have outperfomed various other emerging markets, we have not fallen much as these markets. Russia had lower circuit thrice in last three weeks, Nikkie has declined close to 30% in last two weeks. How will you build a story for Indian capital markets, believe me, we dont know any rocket science that will pull Indian capital markets upwards !
But I agree that some even become undervalued in this bear run being driven by sentiments. So is it that ICICI has bad fundamentals. ICICI had investment of around 85 million $ in Lehman Brother so after the crash of Lehman ICICI suffered. Its not that is has weak fundalmentals. if some one go and check its fundamentals its actually has become under valued.
The lehman investment that you know is something that ICICI bank has filed long before, which was discounted from the company's price long before, recent downfall is not because of Lehman's reason! Lehman's downfall was not something that happened overnight, in March when Lehman filed 10K - annual report, everyone had a sense that Lehman will have liquidity crunch - in coming quarter, however no one had speculated that the company had to file Chapter 11 to protect itself from creditors. If you think ICICI bank is under-valued then for the same reason I would say Lehman, AIG, Citibank are under-valued.
However, that besides the point, ICICI's scrip cannot fall 70% given it has strong fundamentals and weak sentiments !! It is kiddish to assume that they have small pockets of investments, which is the reason for the fall, however they have strong fundamentals. Do you know ICICI banks FCCB issuance, you know how much they have hedged in credit markets {which has inverse correlation to equity markets}, you might also not be knowing how much infusion they have done in foriegn interbank lending. We dont know these answers, since the bank dosent file these things in Filings, and this information is non-public. However, these reasons could be one of the possibilities that bank got hammered so much, or probably something bigger than this. I dont think, anything can fall 70% based on weak sentiments.
Forget what the people are telling forget what the analyst are telling. We need to be different(Remember Shiva Khera). Don't simply follow the Bhed chall. Buy in companies having growth potential and correct valuation stocks if not under valued. We will definitely make profits. Just the time frame should not be less than 2-3 years. Start buying when others are still selling. DII's are taking advantage of public sentiments each time we have a greater fall they start buying thus getting a better price. So we should also gradually start buying.:clap:
We are on a public forum, when you recommed people to buy something, you should be very cautious, if you think we have reached some intermediate bottom, I guess you've taken things wrongly! In Indian context we still have huge potential to go down from here. You have mentioned DII's - can please give few examples, who have been buying and have got better price ?
er_gaurav211085 SaysFriend do u really enjoy each time the market falls.???? I think in any situation we should look for the optimistic point of views
What optimism? People make money when the market rises, some make money when the market falls.
Those holding some stocks may sell now, & buy when the sensex falls lower, making money in the bargain, theoretically it's possible. So there's no question of optimism or pessimism in equities, it depends how you manage to manage the speculation in the markets, those it's not an easy task.
Guys i have been constantly looking at this post from past few days. Every one has their own opinion. Some say the fall is not justified looking at the fundamentals. Some say investor sentiments.
Well I say the market is falling because FII's need money. Last year total inflow was around $17Bn, this year outflow has been around $10Bn till now.
The scenario is like, a trader trading on behalf of an MNC Bank will follow what their bosses (sitting in Manhattan) say. Now if he says to sell, the trader will of course sell.
That is what happened in case of Morgan Stanley, their emptied most of their portfolio in 2 days (selling 2200 crore of stock). Then other followed. Of course Bear stearns started this trend.
Now if you consider the data according to the stock exchanges, LIC shored up its stake in some other companies. But does this help??
If morgan stanley sells 1200 crore of stocks in a day, LIC doesn't have the buying power to buy that much stock. And even it may not buy because of its portfolio.
What I am trying to say is, FII's selling close to 500 crore of stocks per day and there is no one to buy that much amount. Here comes the basic rule of Economics (suppply and demand). Obviously stocks are being hammered left right. The main reason for selling is of course you know, the big SUB PRIME crisis.
Also I wud like to explain this with an example, why FII's are selling stock even for a loss.
Lets say ABC bank (multi national) bought 1 million stock of TATA STEEL for some avg price of 300. At the end of the yr, considering 16Rs/share dividend, the bank got 1.6 crores as bonus money (this happened for 2 years).
after 2 years it was disturbed by the crisis, that time the stock was at around 650 (just an example). So it decided to sell in installments hoping that the bank might recover with some money. so it sold 0.2 million shares at 650. but situation worsened, so the bank again started to sell i installments as follows:
0.2 million * 400
0.2 million * 300
0.2 million * 200
0.2 million * 100
Total returns = (130 + 80 + 60 + 40 + 20) - (300) millions
= 30 millions + (16 * 2 for the dividend of 2 yrs)
Point is even if 30 millions profit is not there, the bank has got its money back and also some 32 million in dividend. Of course its not the same with all stocks, but in time of such crisis they need money and do not mind in facing some losses.
Hope my explanation was clear 😃
Also as our finance minister pointed out, when congress cam into power the sensex was at 4400 level. So it might also happen that we go back to the age old days, as already the sensex has touched 8700 on 24-Oct-2008 :)
Don't worry I am not a short seller, My portofoliio has also shrunked to 1/3 rd of what i invested. But no regrets, as I am a long term investor and i find these opportunities to invest even more.
As the legendary Buffet says:
"Be fearful when other are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful"
:)
Indian rupee today breached the historic 50-mark against a US dollar in intra-day on sustained demand for the greenback amid the American currency's sharp rise against its major rivals in overseas markets.
The domestic currency later closed the day a little lower at 49.95/96 after suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank in the inter-bank foreign exchange (forex) market. Meanwhile, the benchmark Sensex also posted its second biggest single-day fall of nearly 1,100 points on relentless capital outflows.
The Indian unit plunged to the record low in the opening trade and just ahead of the announcement of RBI mid-term review of monetary policy.
The rupee, however, recovered after the announcement of the monetary policy review and traded below 50-mark. Forex dealers said RBI is believed to have intervened to support the Indian currency.
They said all major currencies depreciated against dollar in overseas markets in the midst of a global gloom, with Asian and European equity markets registering massive looses.
Foreign banks stepped up their dollar purchases as the greenback hit new heights in the world markets.
Dealers said rupee is likely to gain strength in the days to come as RBI is widely expected to intervene to mitigate the rupee's losses against the greenback.
The local unit has consistently been under tremendous pressure as FIIs pulled out from equity on day-to-day basis in the light of spreading global financial market crisis. Experts said dollar's appreciation the world over is surprising, considering the financial mess US is in.
Scorpio_19 SaysWhat optimism? People make money when the market rises, some make money when the market falls.Those holding some stocks may sell now, & buy when the sensex falls lower, making money in the bargain, theoretically it's possible. So there's no question of optimism or pessimism in equities, it depends how you manage to manage the speculation in the markets, those it's not an easy task.
My point of optimism was not directed to general public. It was specifically for the guy I have quoted.
I know that some how you have to make profits. Its better to be bullish in a bull run and to be bearish in a bear run. I have been adopting this method only to reduce my loses (cant make profits buy prices are quite high) these days by selling stocks as the market rises for two or three trading sessions and then recovering them later. I think you misunderstood me.
Do you know ICICI banks FCCB issuance, you know how much they have hedged in credit markets {which has inverse correlation to equity markets}, you might also not be knowing how much infusion they have done in foriegn interbank lending.
@vivek
Frankly speaking I am not familiar to these terms. Can u explain me more about them.
??:
You have mentioned DII's - can please give few examples, who have been buying and have got better price ?I dont know the names of the DIIs but I can substantiate my stance. Taken from business standard.
23rd Oct:
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers of Rs 811.69 crore (provisional) today, according to data released by BSE.While FIIs made gross purchases of Rs 1,971.52 crore, gross sales totalled Rs 2,783.21 crore.Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs 619.91 crore today. While DIIs made gross purchases of Rs 1,269.10 crore, gross sales totalled Rs 649.19 crore. FIIs were net sellers of Rs 272.90 crore on Wednesday, October 22, according to data released by Sebi today. While FIIs made gross purchases of Rs 1,724.60 crore, gross sales totalled Rs 1,997.50 crore.Mutual funds (MFs) were net buyers of Rs 17.50 crore on Wednesday. MFs made purchases of Rs 440 crore and sales of Rs 422.50 crore.
17TH OCT
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers of Rs 915.54 crore (provisional) today, according to data released by BSE.While FIIs made gross purchases of Rs 2,308.40 crore, gross sales totalled Rs 3,223.94 crore.Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs 712.77 crore today. While DIIs made gross purchases of Rs 1,363.16 crore, gross sales totalled Rs 650.39 crore.FIIs were net sellers of Rs 1,911.30 crore on Thursday, October 16, according to data released by Sebi today. While FIIs made gross purchases of Rs 2,233.60 crore, gross sales totalled Rs 4,144.90 crore.Mutual funds (MFs) were net sellers of Rs 431.60 crore on Thursday. MFs made purchases of Rs 927.70 crore and sales of Rs 496 crore.
I will post the latest figures If i come across them.
As far as I know that gradual buying is what is adopted by any institutional investor. And they are investors not traders(keeping a minimum time frame of 2-3 years). So even if we adopt this method then I dont think so that we may be at any lose. Even if the market losses another 1000-1500 points, then also the buy price would not be too high that we can't even make profit in a longer time frame. And after all we don't have seen the bottom. We all are no way a prognosticator and if we will continue to wait for the bottoming out then certainly we may be at some loss even. Well It depends on the strategy that one adopts. The upshot of my point is that we can't buy at once, it has to be done gradually.So start buying will not be a bad deal.(I know its a public forum that y i am expressing just my views ,not quoting the stock to buy). Even I know that according to the projections by IMF the world market will not be able to recover before 2010.
very interesting topic. relay i study some good information.
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shanker
http://sreevysh corp.in
Okay, absolute newbie to all this going to post here, please don't admonish me... Poor ol' me is an advertising student and the only finance I do is my monthly expenses Excel sheet
I'm going to dabble in the stock market soon - current prices are too good a bargain... Am looking at long-term returns obviously... I have 10,000 bucks which I'm willing to invest... Any suggestions?
Sorry for a very basic question
ChUcK
satyamfiredme Sayshey Konquerer vivek all world markets are at 2004 levels so can sensex go down to 5000 as in 2004
I wrote 6,500 on this forum when market was trading at around 12,000, which was roughly 47% correction, a very significant in terms of price, it can well tank below 6,500 level, given relentless selling across. If you check current trading position for Nifty it is around 2,300, which seems still over-valued compared to Shanghai and other Asian Emerging markets.
@vivek
Frankly speaking I am not familiar to these terms. Can u explain me more about them.
CDS is a derivative instrument, which has an inverse correlation with equity prices and bond prices for an entity, banks and trading institutions use CDX indices in the US and iTraxx European indices to hedge their positions in primary markets. The position in any market is private data for any financial institution, a person writing equity research report in Goldman Sachs on ICICI Bank, should be unaware of Goldman's holding and trading position in ICICI Bank.
I wrote 6,500 on this forum when market was trading at around 12,000, which was roughly 47% correction, a very significant in terms of price, it can well tank below 6,500 level, given relentless selling across. If you check current trading position for Nifty it is around 2,300, which seems still over-valued compared to Shanghai and other Asian Emerging markets.
CDS is a derivative instrument, which has an inverse correlation with equity prices and bond prices for an entity, banks and trading institutions use CDX indices in the US and iTraxx European indices to hedge their positions in primary markets. The position in any market is private data for any financial institution, a person writing equity research report in Goldman Sachs on ICICI Bank, should be unaware of Goldman's holding and trading position in ICICI Bank.
May be the market further falls but my perception would be different from others. Its goes like the current net selling by the FIIs have reached 10 Billion $ in the indian markets and they still hold some where around 54 billion $. So it now totally depends on them. Actually we have become their puppets.
But govt and RBI are making efforts to appease them, so that they start investing more and more. Like its vanished the limit of 40% and there are some other even. I dont remember them exactly but they were in news recently. So lets see what happens.
What happened today the market went nearly 1000 points down then recovered some 800+ points. The buying was seen in communication stocks, but auto and FMCG forced the market to end up in red. Lets see what happends on Muhurat trading.
Happy Diwali to all.....
Okay, absolute newbie to all this going to post here, please don't admonish me... Poor ol' me is an advertising student and the only finance I do is my monthly expenses Excel sheet
I'm going to dabble in the stock market soon - current prices are too good a bargain... Am looking at long-term returns obviously... I have 10,000 bucks which I'm willing to invest... Any suggestions?
Sorry for a very basic question
ChUcK
Welcome and congrats on popping your neck outta MICA
, Knowing you personally I would say go get one more 500GB hard disk and exploit Bharti 😉 but then coming on current situation I don't know why you wanna invest in college, I mean come on , in few months you'll get that coveted job, so why to add constrains now, have liquidity call it disposable funds and have fun! Or else if hell bount on investing would suggest you to make an FD till march and invest the same in some ELSS, anytime after 1st April, that will mean some 30% savings on tax on day zero ;)
May be the market further falls but my perception would be different from others. Its goes like the current net selling by the FIIs have reached 10 Billion $ in the indian markets and they still hold some where around 54 billion $. So it now totally depends on them. Actually we have become their puppets.
But govt and RBI are making efforts to appease them, so that they start investing more and more. Like its vanished the limit of 40% and there are some other even. I dont remember them exactly but they were in news recently. So lets see what happens.
What happened today the market went nearly 1000 points down then recovered some 800+ points. The buying was seen in communication stocks, but auto and FMCG forced the market to end up in red. Lets see what happends on Muhurat trading.
Happy Diwali to all.....
Just another side of story.......
FII invested money mostly in last 9 months to 20 months, whereas market is now at 2004 levels with Rupee already devalued more than 25% since Jan, so am doubting if they really had made a large (or any) profit and on same logic don't think Govt. or RBI will announce anything big as such and like always will again let the dust settle before acting.
Welcome and congrats on popping your neck outta MICA
Or else if hell bount on investing would suggest you to make an FD till march and invest the same in some ELSS, anytime after 1st April, that will mean some 30% savings on tax on day zero ;)
* sigh * Andy, Andy, Andy :D
I wanna dabble in the market aise hi... Atleast it will motivate me to pick up ET everyday. And the coveted job I'm going to take is not going to be too high-paying. Remember, I'm still looking at advertising
And Dad is sending me the dough, it's not out of my savings... So don't worry. Now, Andy, some advice please
ChUcK
* sigh * Andy, Andy, Andy :D
I wanna dabble in the market aise hi... Atleast it will motivate me to pick up ET everyday. And the coveted job I'm going to take is not going to be too high-paying. Remember, I'm still looking at advertising
And Dad is sending me the dough, it's not out of my savings... So don't worry. Now, Andy, some advice please
ChUcK
Guess you read everything in my post barring the last sentence, or may be advertisers are designed to ignore fine print
Anyways here's once more:-
- By investment what i can perceive is that you wanna but stock, or your risk appetite has grown big enough to own a business..... but I seriously doubt if you already have a demat and online trading account :
- If not, better get some convenient one like eye-See-you-see-why as for small investors (no pun here ) its really good.
- Read ET, discuss on this thread but there's no mathematics to be solved, atleast in current times...so finally use a parrot, or dice or coin whatever you like and pick a couple of them preferentially from different sectors.
Wholla ....you own a part of two companies now! and the way market is going in no time you yourself will feel some kinda expert after that . ;)
Regards,
ANdy :)
P.S. In case you were looking for then lemme make clear that I am deliberately avoiding any tips as these days even experts' fate is not hidden from anyone.
* sigh * Andy, Andy, Andy :D
I wanna dabble in the market aise hi... Atleast it will motivate me to pick up ET everyday. And the coveted job I'm going to take is not going to be too high-paying. Remember, I'm still looking at advertising
And Dad is sending me the dough, it's not out of my savings... So don't worry. Now, Andy, some advice please
ChUcK
Now the Blue chips companies are available at even a cheaper price than a burger. Companies like unitech, suzlon, idea, hindalco, ambuja cement(ET-28.10.200
. All are at a very low price. I cant tell you particular stocks to buy. But I can tell you what to do and what not to do.To Do:
1. Your portfolio should be diversified as per the sector. Divide your money in some appropriate portion for few sectors.
2. GO for blue chip companies.
3.For long term invest in those companies which have growth potential already well established company which has given bonus many times and also has been splitted will not give you as good return as a company having growth potential will give.
4. Always go for volume based earning(preferably) rather than buy a very expensive stock. But be careful volume based earing does not mean that you invest in any of the stock. What ever amount you have to invest say 10,000. If you go for LnT say then you will get around 14-15 as per the current market price. so that makes sense when you have some other money left either to average at later stage of to diversify your portfolio. Otherwise if it further shows downtrend then you will not be able to do averaging. And buying anything less than 10 is not that good.
What not to do.
1. Never invest your money at once.
2. Buy each time the market falls instead of when the market is rising(but it also depends on one's strategy)
3. Dont panic if your stock further falls. Just try to do some averaging.
4. Avoid stocks which are highly dependent on government policies. Export duty, import duty etc etc. To be specific the current market situation is not good for automobile, cement,
5. Initially avoid volatile scripts.
And it would be better if you can wait till the market stabilizes till march'09. Or atleast keep a part of you money till that time.
Happy Investments.... cheers
Now the Blue chips companies are available at even a cheaper price than a burger. Companies like unitech, suzlon, idea, hindalco, ambuja cement. All are at a very low price. I cant tell you particular stocks to buy. But I can tell you what to do and what not to do.
To Do:
1. Your portfolio should be diversified as per the sector. Divide your money in some appropriate portion for few sectors.
2. GO for blue chip companies.
3.For long term invest in those companies which have growth potential already well established company which has given bonus many times and also has been splitted will not give you as good return as a company having growth potential will give.
4. Always go for volume based earning(preferably) rather than buy a very expensive stock. But be careful volume based earing does not mean that you invest in any of the stock. What ever amount you have to invest say 10,000. If you go for LnT say then you will get around 14-15 as per the current market price. so that makes sense when you have some other money left either to average at later stage of to diversify your portfolio. Otherwise if it further shows downtrend then you will not be able to do averaging. And buying anything less than 10 is not that good.
What not to do.
1. Never invest your money at once.
2. Buy each time the market falls instead of when the market is rising(but it also depends on one's strategy)
3. Dont panic if your stock further falls. Just try to do some averaging.
4. Avoid stocks which are highly dependent on government policies. Export duty, import duty etc etc. To be specific the current market situation is not good for automobile, cement,
5. Initially avoid volatile scripts.
And it would be better if you can wait till the market stabilizes till march'09. Or atleast keep a part of you money till that time.
Happy Investments.... cheers
And all this in only 200 $
Brother see the corpus chuck is targeting plus PG oldie's newbie status in markets
But on whole seriously a wonderful post.....appreciations 😃
Wow, that was one hell of a post! Thanks, dude! A good reckoner into starting investing, I guess
@ Andy 
ChUcK
Overheard this on Dalal Street:
Indian equity mkts have become a joke ;). Chuck gopal is posting in equity mkts thread on PG 