Posted on 25/10/07> __________________________________________________________________________
"nifty calls for short to long term guys, i may not be there for next few weeks.
so, wud like to share short term to medium term to long term scenario. for short term for short term 5450 is the major suuport of wave break of this will lead to correction. buy only above 5600 for the tgt of 5750 in coming days, if we reach 5750 then support wud rise up to 5530, breach of 5750 will tgt 6100-6300 in medium term, if by any chance nifty take u turn from 5750 and break 5530 then be ready for 5074 again.but in that case also mkt will move upto 6100-6300 after correction
for medium term now what after 6300, there will be crash near this and that crash wud be bigger then aug 07 and oct07 that may take indicies towards 4500-4800.
its not like that the crash will start from 6300 it can start from 6500-6700(depends on the volume at that time) but what i want to convey that coming crash (after nifty making new high) will be quite big in magnitude.
for long term but that wud again a best oppourtunity to buy, because after that we will move towards some where near 8700(nifty,not sensex) now some where near 8500-9000 the major fifth wave may end, which started from 920(nifty) and it may lead to one year of consolidation.tgt cud be somewhere near 5000.
now how to understand that when correction of major fifth wave will start.
first mkt will make new high say 6300-6700, then it will correct heavinly say 4500-4800 then it will make once again new high say 7200-7500, then it will correct once again say 6200 then it will make once again new high say 8000-8200, then it will correct once again say 7100, then it will make new highs once again and after that........... now after these three big correction, coming fourth correction will be one of the biggest correction in indian stock mkt.
for longer term don't concentrate on levels, what i want to convey that after three corrections , fourth correction is not for reenter in haste so right now use every correction only for buying, just accumulate eqities in every big dip for the tgt of some where near 8500(it shud be acieved in next two years)
another thing, what after that big cosolidation, will bull run finish? no once again mkt will roar after that big correction.
overall if timecycle to beilive sensex has tgt of 65538 by 2020, after that only we will move into 5 to 8 years of bearish phase so buy buy buy.
warm regards magnet man __________________________________________________________________________
So far our market has behaved almost as per his predictions!!
And Sensex not breaking 14500 levels....and nifty not breaking 4400 lelves.
Market kept on bouncing frm this levels.
If it breaks this levels means FIIs are selling in losses. Which can not happen. currently our retail participation is slowly increasing....FIIs are sitting on hugeee cash to pump in to BRIC countries.
chek the facts dude tis yr 60% gdp was service industry which has been affected heavily by usa recession. 2ndly agrian growth in no way affects stock market coz these scrips have no weightage in sensex
financial sector 2 is in dire straits man..
people r just accepting the harsh reailty.
but as they
" first there is denial,then despair,then depression and finally hope comes:angel:.
u will see the biggest slump in indian economy in next 2 yrs..
come on man go to indian colleges and ask the btechs who r not getting joning even after 1 yr of graduation in IT firms. IT firms are not raising salaries. india is in deep deep shit .....
its just that u r in germany and dont know the ground realties.
ps: there r rumours icici bank is now in cost cutting modes and huge layoff r in line at icici bank
this india shinining of last 5 yrs based just on IT/BPO sector which inturn made all other sectors like realty,hospitality , cars , finance perk will burst.
good old days of 2002 will come for sure.
infact all this decoupling is all crap whats globalization ten
i feel indian economy is one of the worst placed amon all developing economies becoz all our focus and attention has been on service industry which is dependent on USA and now USA is in........
and i have known ones working in RBI that is their view dude. and RBI people know something u nd i dont know...(they have all the inside info and data)
it will 2 yrs for things to get back to normal by that time "MEN WILL BE SEPERATED FROM THE BOYS"
True. Services sector, of which IT and BPO are a part, contributes nearly 60% to our economy. But, what portion does IT and BPO industry contribute to the GDP? Nearly 7%. Agriculture contributes around 16.6%. Manufacturing - 28%.
Few other facts, India is the 4th largest economy in terms of PPP (purchasing power parity) after US, China and Japan for nearly 6 years now. The foreign funds inflows, through the FII and FDI route has being growing are at a stupendous rate. Can this drive the stock markets?
Well, my take on this Stock markets trend is clear, the honeymoon is over. Any Tom, **** and Harry stock will not witness a bull run. But if armed with clear insights and research into stocks, there are ample script-specific stories that can be multi-baggers. So, to stay away from the markets in the hope that the index may correct, may be valid for some scripts, surely. But, I know at least 10 stocks which have rallied so strongly that they are quoting nearly double from their lows in the post Jan 21 carnage.
well usa economy is going back and even worse to 2002 days and eventually indians economy will collapse also
1) IT sector in turmoil 2) Exports sector in huge losses( leather,jewellery etc etc) 3) peple in USA r now struggling to eat since banks have cut credit supply 2 them
4) since USA is 70% of world GDP u can imagine what can happen
i feel 7k level for sensex is a reasonable assumption looking at macro fundamentals.
also on this site see comments posted by us residents that will tell u the story..
whats happening now is just cover up whr strong people r liquidating shares .
doomsday r ahead for india also
ps: major part of growth in india is just coz of BPO.
I dont see Indian stock markets to see levels like 7,000-8,000 (BSE) or for that matter 2500-2950 (NSE), it is impossible. If this happens, there will be many-many small caps, mid-caps will have to close up there business. Yes, the consumer data for US came worst, consumer spending got a hit from Feb to March, this is not the only indicator, on which you could build up a recssion theory. In US, the condition has rather improved and definitely by second quarter of 2008, there will be further improvement. As far as sub-prime losses, writedowns, credit losses are concerned, Q1 2008, has to be the worst, and it happened to be the worst. You might also want to look at this list, Bloomberg.com: Finance which measures losses of big financial giants in the US from early 2007. I believe, most of this losses are now hedged or being sold to PEs (Citi recently had a $12 Bn deal with a PE, for its outstanding ARM portfolio). To the worst, BSE might see 14,000 levels and for Nifty worst could be 4,100 level.
No date has been decided about allotment. Allotment has been approved but cut-off date hasn't been decided. It will be there on first page of moneycontrol when they allot it.
wooh i was looking for such a discussion i am new with shares and the stock market everyone tells me to study it but the thing is hw to start the study is it like i need to select os few stocks and track them....also can i start with a small amount of capital and hw small is ok.....
wooh i was looking for such a discussion i am new with shares and the stock market everyone tells me to study it but the thing is hw to start the study is it like i need to select os few stocks and track them....also can i start with a small amount of capital and hw small is ok.....
weel ankit and all if you want to learn the basics about market and other related things to equity you can refer to investopedia.com
its a very good site i have tried it but its more into explaining the terms involved rather than explaining the procedure
i did not get you what do you mean by that? I mean sites can guide you to basic terminology But its you who will finally implement things I mean nobody will come and tell you which shares to invest You can see quotes that comes everyday on different sites to see which shares are expected to rise or stuff like that but no one will tell you specifically or other details. otherwise i think you are talkin about taking help from a financial adviser
It is true that i have to decide about the shares but there are other things like the amount with which one should start whether intra day selling and buying is bettr...which broker house is best suited for a particular person ......and stuff like that....
It is true that i have to decide about the shares but there are other things like the amount with which one should start whether intra day selling and buying is bettr...which broker house is best suited for a particular person ......and stuff like that....
To give you some idea, before you start investing in capital markets take note of these things -
- Measure your Risk taking ability, before investing any money in the markets, For example if you have 100 Rs to invest, you might invest 20 Rs to start with.
- Standard brokerage (for private broking houses) is 0.25% (Buy & Sell - Intraday), and 0.5% otherwise. The broking fees also depends on the amount you will be investing with the broker. Larger the amount lower will be the broking fees. (This is for Cash market)
- For Future and Options space, brokerage is on premium. My personal opinion dont invest in options or futures, at present.
- There are also various banks, which have broking license, ICICIdirect and HDFCsecurities are among the better ones, with interatctive web interface.
- Usually people, BUY at market rumours and SELL at actual news. Make sure the advice (Buy / Sell call) is authentic.
It is true that i have to decide about the shares but there are other things like the amount with which one should start whether intra day selling and buying is bettr...which broker house is best suited for a particular person ......and stuff like that....
I have been trading for the past two years and trust me I have not made a single penny by doing intra day.... It promises smart money but nobody is smart enough to defeat the market.... You will make money the first few days then you will lose everything in a moment.... Go for delivery based trading.... It rocks ... You can really make money provided you choose your shares...:cheers:
@ankit - deliver trading is futures and options. -- its little complicated for beginners and u need huge money to trade here. Try googling u will let the fundamentals and then for specific doubts theres alwasy PG.
Guys , due to lack of time , i have stopped following the stock market and my friends was interested in a broker who can take care of his assests. Could u please guide to any good broker .
@ankit - deliver trading is futures and options. -- its little complicated for beginners and u need huge money to trade here. Try googling u will let the fundamentals and then for specific doubts theres alwasy PG.
Guys , due to lack of time , i have stopped following the stock market and my friends was interested in a broker who can take care of his assests. Could u please guide to any good broker .
thanks in advance .
Just to add...delivery means, you will not be selling the securities / derivative contracts on the same day. It is applicable for Cash Markets as well.
I do delivery based trading only in the cash market.... Choose any share in the NIFTY 50 when there is a falling market and start buying it in small quantities.... You will surely end up making money... this is the simplest way to learn and earn... As time goes you can move to mid and small caps as well...
While on Equity markets saw this cricket equity thing, you invest and trade on the IPL teams with virtual money and build your portfolio, nice stuff...surprised no one has mentioned it here before...or have I missed it?
I guess it is a good time to Invest (long) in Oil and Gas sector, Refinery space, and (short) Automobile space for next two quarters. Crude oil has surpassed $120 mark, and I believe as Infation will heat up even more, oil prices will increase in India and China. Goldman Sachs has predicted Crude to reach $150 - $200 in next 24 months, a 50% rise from here is a matter of worry. Any suggestions what could be the best pick in Oil and Gas space?
I guess it is a good time to Invest (long) in Oil and Gas sector, Refinery space, and (short) Automobile space for next two quarters. Crude oil has surpassed $120 mark, and I believe as Infation will heat up even more, oil prices will increase in India and China. Goldman Sachs has predicted Crude to reach $150 - $200 in next 24 months, a 50% rise from here is a matter of worry. Any suggestions what could be the best pick in Oil and Gas space?
When you say Oil and Gas I guess you mean by oil and gas producers - which acc to me are ONGC, GAIL, RPL, Cairn and Essar - I think ONGC and GAIL look good but then since they are large caps the momentum will be slower
In refinery space RIL is the best bet but then I guess its a lil on expensive side right now - my be worth a look at 15500-16000 level... the stock has been holding to its valuation even in downturn so may not be the cas as well...
however, if you meant petro marketing companies i.e. IOC, HPCL, BPCL - please run away from these stocks... they are gonna be in big trouble if government continue to force them to sell petroleum at such cheap rates... oil bonds are of no use for these companies for two reasons 1) they do not provide them with much needed cash to run operations 2) they are illiquid and hence to convert them back to cash will require companies to sell them in discount
When you say Oil and Gas I guess you mean by oil and gas producers - which acc to me are ONGC, GAIL, RPL, Cairn and Essar - I think ONGC and GAIL look good but then since they are large caps the momentum will be slower
In refinery space RIL is the best bet but then I guess its a lil on expensive side right now - my be worth a look at 15500-16000 level... the stock has been holding to its valuation even in downturn so may not be the cas as well...
however, if you meant petro marketing companies i.e. IOC, HPCL, BPCL - please run away from these stocks... they are gonna be in big trouble if government continue to force them to sell petroleum at such cheap rates... oil bonds are of no use for these companies for two reasons 1) they do not provide them with much needed cash to run operations 2) they are illiquid and hence to convert them back to cash will require companies to sell them in discount
no idea about Auto sectors...
Jaimin
Thanks, I guess CARIN is by far the best pick among all, For Essar - I dont trust Ruia's :crazyeye:, ONGC is not a high beta stock, as you said, there wont be a huge momentum, it is ofcourse a value pick. MRPL is already overvalued, Bongaigaon Refn has a merger in pipeline, which is priced at 57-58, and CMP is 61. You are right, IOC, BPCL, HPCL are the stocks which will decline, as govt wont hike oil prices any more before election.
