2009: so , whats next ?? So, what next? Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, goes a famous saying. With the banking crisis and recession fears nowhere nearing an end in the US and threat of higher inflation and slowing growth in India, investors can keep their fingers crossed over the next few months. While specific consumption stories like banking, telecom, retail, hospitality, media and FMCG are expected to maintain their growth momentum in this fiscal as well, there are no signs of easing off for sectors impacted by currency volatility (software, pharma and textiles) and raw material issues (automobiles). Further, considering that this is the last fiscal before the next elections, there might be delays in award and execution of projects in power and non-housing construction sectors. Continued industrial growth (though at a slower pace than what has been seen in the past few quarters) will aid prospects of the engineering and capital goods and cement industries.
Gr8 article dude. Next fiscal year seemight be encouraging.
I hope next election and new govt dont create any hamper in industrial growth with their new policies
Application money for these share issues will remain in an investors bank account until the allotment of shares is finalized by the issuing company
In a move that will impact hundreds of thousands of small individual investors, market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India, or Sebi, said on Tuesday its board approved an alternative payment mechanism for initial public offerings (IPOs) and rights issues, potentially eliminating what is still a protracted refund process. Under the new system, application money for these share issues will remain in an investors bank account until the allotment of shares is finalized by the issuing company, speeding up the refund process. The decision comes just three months after Chandrasekhar Bhaskar Bhave took over as chairman and made reforming....Click here to read full story
Application money for these share issues will remain in an investors bank account until the allotment of shares is finalized by the issuing company
In a move that will impact hundreds of thousands of small individual investors, market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India, or Sebi, said on Tuesday its board approved an alternative payment mechanism for initial public offerings (IPOs) and rights issues, potentially eliminating what is still a protracted refund process. Under the new system, application money for these share issues will remain in an investors bank account until the allotment of shares is finalized by the issuing company, speeding up the refund process. The decision comes just three months after Chandrasekhar Bhaskar Bhave took over as chairman and made reforming....Click here to read full story
Really gr8 move by new chairman.Kudos to him. Dis process will encourage more participation from small investors who normally think twice for the lose of loosing money. Dis would fasten return process and will be overwhelmingly welcomed.
Hey guys what u think of companies like taa notors, maruti? will these stocks take a bashing when petrol prices r increased to 75 after elections?
Yes, Auto sector will face some heat because of crude price creating new heights, General Motors fell last week, recovered yesterday when crude fell slightly below $125 level. Aerospace sector will face even more downside, when compared to Auto sector, example - SpiceJet. However, Lehman had released a research report, in which they believe crude will trade at $103-105 levels by FY08 close (December).
Yes, Auto sector will face some heat because of crude price creating new heights, General Motors fell last week, recovered yesterday when crude fell slightly below $125 level. Aerospace sector will face even more downside, when compared to Auto sector, example - SpiceJet. However, Lehman had released a research report, in which they believe crude will trade at $103-105 levels by FY08 close (December).
Hi
I have a query.If as per Lehman report the crude oil price shells down around $100 by dec.SO will it be a solution to inflation control too? Will this have any direct mapping with inflation.
Coz crude oil has indirect impact on many industries.
Indian IT: Surviving the slowdown Indian IT sector is under pall of dark cloud of the US credit crisis and the subsequent economic slowdown. The questions, which are haunting managements and investors alike, is "What will be the impact of economic slowdown in the US economy on outsourcing?" and "Whether the slowdown will clog up outsourcing of IT and ITES (BPO) services to India?" The answer is not simple and straightforward, but if we were to look into annals of history, we will find a hint that work has always moved to place where it can be done most efficiently and at low cost. Manchester, the worlds first industrial city, was once known as the cotton capital. The citys economy started to decline as crisis in mass manufacturing, which began in the 1950s continued to accelerate throughout the 1970s and 1980s. During this phase of crisis, manufacturing of machines like the Cockroft (used in textile industry) began to be outsourced to India, Pakistan and South East Asian countries. Manchesters textile industry was soon entirely shifted to these cheaper labour markets.
What to expect ? The managements of the large Indian IT companies like Infosys, TCS and Satyam have talked about some near term pain on account of restructuring happening at the clients end. The fact that business restructuring and leadership changes at large US investment banks, who are major clients of these tech majors, is expected to impact short term growth for the latter, cannot be denied. However, the managements have talked about renewed traction for offshore outsourcing once the dust settles in about 3 to 4 quarters from now. We are also of the belief that given the value creation abilities of these companies businesses and the fact that their stocks are trading at attractive valuations, investors can benefit over the long term. Especially for companies like Infosys, which continue to earn margins of 30% plus and return rations of over 45%, and are expected to grow their earnings at a compounded annual rate of 20%, the current valuations do look fairly attractive. However, the pain might elongate for the mid-size players that face scalability issues and have seen their attrition levels rising at a fast clip.
yaar i dont know who invests in this stupid airline sector, all these compnaies r in huge losses and will be in losses till they become bankrupt :D.
i seriously feel in next 3 years half of indian aviation companies will become bankrupt
The companies have been facing losses but that has been the scenario in this sector all over the world. There would be a lot of consolidation going forward. We have already seen Deccan and KF merging. There would be some other buyouts or mergers. Spicejet is likely to declare profits in a couple of years. That is the best aviation stock to invest in.
I have a query.If as per Lehman report the crude oil price shells down around $100 by dec.SO will it be a solution to inflation control too? Will this have any direct mapping with inflation.
Coz crude oil has indirect impact on many industries.
Sorry, if question doesn`t seems logical
Regards
You are right...it is not illogical to correlate Inflation with Crude trading level, Govt might not increase petrol / gas prices, because of election and other parameters, but surely the Govt will increase price / tax / duties on other things which dosent have direct correlation with Crude, but somehow related. It is as simple, Indian Public / Private companies will be buying crude at a higher price, and where will the money will come from ?, from our pockets - Tax payers in India.
I have a query.If as per Lehman report the crude oil price shells down around $100 by dec.SO will it be a solution to inflation control too? Will this have any direct mapping with inflation.
Coz crude oil has indirect impact on many industries.
Sorry, if question doesn`t seems logical
Regards
The decrease in the price of crude need not necessarily mean the inflation has to come down... Fuel, power and light do not come under the primary articles section which has a major weightage in the WPI index... the inflation has been raising mainly due to the rise in price of minerals and food prices... But there would be an impact when crude decreases either directly or indirectly on inflation...
So its best to assume that inflation may wary with crudes prices , but it depends more on govt policy what they come up with. lets hope sanity prevails and govt thinks something in juntas favour.
So its best to assume that inflation may wary with crudes prices , but it depends more on govt policy what they come up with. lets hope sanity prevails and govt thinks something in juntas favour.
In India WPI dosent have Oil as one of the factor which they consider while calculating WPI. Anyways the Oil prices in India havent increased for a long time. But once government decide to go ahead with the increases in oil price it will impact the inflation. becaz oil is directly on indirectly used by all the companies. But if the government doesnt go ahead with the price increases then Indian Oil companies are in huge trouble. Government issued oil bonds worth 55k crs. Which will eventually will be paid off some day or other
inflation now 7.8 looks like will be 10% when petrol prices will be hiked after elections scene looks grim after elections as then govt will be least bothered about prices etc etc.
god knows why shares r rising??
OIL/IT/MANUFACTURING/AUTOMOBILE etc all sectors r in trouble.
maybe there will be a sudden crash of 4-5k points??:
The market will start becoming jittery once the talk of elections start .. let alone fuel hike after that... there are many other key data to look for before that... If the inflation does not come below 6.5% in a few weeks time then RBI may react... then there could be trouble...
ALso with the inflation figures being revised for the weeks of March the average inflation rate for the year will be higher as expected further leading to negative vibes for the market
ALso with the inflation figures being revised for the weeks of March the average inflation rate for the year will be higher as expected further leading to negative vibes for the market
Cheers
MK
The inflation figures have been high for quite sometime now without actually affecting the markets. The Sensex and the Nifty have been performing reasonably well despite inflation. this is due to inflation not being a sole India story. World food and Oil prices have risen leading to increase in inflation figures. Its not a sole India phenomenom.
The reason why we see inflation magnified is due to the political angle
The markets used to get patchy during election years but not anymore. Apart from the Left coming into power, nothing will deter the markets from its usual yo yoing
I say yo yo because we have reached a resistance point at 19-20k. Our economy is not that rosy as to accelerate beyond it but nothing is that drastically bad so as to crash it. It'll be in this range of 16k to 19.5k for some time now me thinks.
Inflation will definately come down from 24th may...as CRR rate hike is applicable to indian banks from 24th may onwards.....so liquidity will be sucked out of market...
and result wud be Supply > Demand.
so wait till last week of may and key IIP numbers.
Inflation will definately come down from 24th may...as CRR rate hike is applicable to indian banks from 24th may onwards.....so liquidity will be sucked out of market...
and result wud be Supply > Demand.
so wait till last week of may and key IIP numbers.
This month is very crucial for indian markets.
Actually, the CRR hike may not affect inflation at all. Maybe a minor dip. Largely because inflation hike is being driven by essentials rather than consumer durables. A CRR hike will make loans even costlier thus hitting the already struggling durables market harder. However, food and oil/kerosene etc are essentials and come out of the non saving income of a person. Thus CRR may not even affect the inflation stat.
Actually, the CRR hike may not affect inflation at all. Maybe a minor dip. Largely because inflation hike is being driven by essentials rather than consumer durables. A CRR hike will make loans even costlier thus hitting the already struggling durables market harder. However, food and oil/kerosene etc are essentials and come out of the non saving income of a person. Thus CRR may not even affect the inflation stat.
As correctly said by polpot the inflationary pressure is because of basic neccesities like fruits and vegetables and a restricted money supply wont lead to much reduction in the rates.
It gives an insight tht this time around the basic neccessities are the mai cause of inflationary forces , and things like cement, iron and steel have provided respite,
Puys, Can we have discussion about some individual stock?
I been planning to put about 20k in TCS? Do you think current valutation of TCS stock is fair enough? Do you see a upside from 3 yrs perspective? if yes, how much can I expect?
PS : I know nobody can predict future and it hold true even for stocks :D, I am asking general panel view of TCS as a company & as a stock
Puys, Can we have discussion about some individual stock?
I been planning to put about 20k in TCS? Do you think current valutation of TCS stock is fair enough? Do you see a upside from 3 yrs perspective? if yes, how much can I expect?
PS : I know nobody can predict future and it hold true even for stocks :D, I am asking general panel view of TCS as a company & as a stock
TCS is among major IT picks in the sector, the Company is trading at PE 18.8x Market Cap - 946,757 million 52 Week Range 1,276.5 - 730.00 CMP 967.50
IT stocks have a good correlation with dollar movement, recently Indian currency has depreciated against other world's major currencies, if you look at past 4 months, Rupee has fallen as high has 12% against Euro and 8% against USD. Given CRR hike implementation, rupee will slightly regain its ground - will affect the IT Companies - in negative way. If you look 3 years down from now, I believe if India will grow at 7-8%, which is among the faster growing economies, definitely dollar will come back to 39-40 range. My personal opinion - Invest in Oil sector, given the consumption will rise drastically after August (Tata's Nano, and 3 other Auto Major's will be launching their vehicals on road). Example - Cairn India.
If you look 3 years down from now, I believe if India will grow at 7-8%, which is among the faster growing economies, definitely dollar will come back to 39-40 range. My personal opinion - Invest in Oil sector, given the consumption will rise drastically after August (Tata's Nano, and 3 other Auto Major's will be launching their vehicals on road). Example - Cairn India.
I differ. There are reports that the government may increase basic Support price for agriculture crops. Thus the oil prices may be subsidised more to cope with inflation. Government sector oil is a strict no no. Cairn maybe
I'd say, the traditional infrastructure is a sure shot. Larsen and Toubro just gor corrected and is on itds way up. Excellent INVESTMENT. Don't trade
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