[Aptitude] Probability Made Easy
(Extension of Permutation Combination Concept!)- Introduction
- Case1 : Probability of Particular Actor getting selected
- Case 2: Probability of One lady getting selected
- Case 3: One man and one woman ("AND" case)
- Case 4: "Atleast" one man is selected ("OR" case)
- Alternative method: 1 Minus
- Case 5: Probability of Not getting selected
- Mock Questions for CSAT, CMAT, IBPS, State PSC
- Dice probability
- Bags and Balls: WITHOUT Replacement
- Bags and Balls: WITH Replacement
- Recommended Booklist
- My Previous Articles on Aptitude
Introduction Probability is merely a subtype of Permutation and Combination (PnC) concept.
Probability can be solved without mugging up formulas, if your basic concepts are clear.
So, before proceeding in this article,
DO read my previous article : Permutation & Combination (PnC) made easy without formulas Since I'm not interested in talking about coins, dice and card in probability article, Let's get back to Gokul-dhaam Society.
We'll learn all the concepts of probability, with following 6 characters so keep the names and faces in mind.
Let us start with extremely easy one
Case1 : Probability of Particular Actor getting selectedDirector Asit Modi wants to shoot an episode in Essel World waterpark, he has to pick up only one character out of the given six character. What is the probability that Jethalal will be selected for this episode?
How many ways can you choose 1 character out of the given talent pool of 6 characters?
Fundamental counting principle: 6 ways. (or 6C1 =6)
Means total possible results=6.
And what is asked in the question?
Jethalal should get selected.
So keep Jethalal aside in a separate 'talent-pool' and ask your self, how many ways can Jethalal be selected out of given talent pool?
There is one character and we've to pick up one character: 1C1= One way only.
Desired result = 1 ways
Matter is finished.
Probability = Desired result divided by total results = 1/6
See the photo, it should make the picture clear
Now I'm modifying the case
Case 2: Probability of One lady getting selected
Quest. Same question as before. Modi has to pick up one character out of the given six. What is the probability of a lady getting selected?..Continue Reading
Total results remains the same: 6C1= 6 ; as in case #1
And what is asked?
One lady.
How many ladies do we have in this talent pool? 2 (Anjali and Babita)
Put them in separate 'ladies' talent pool.
How many ways can you select one lady out of the given two ladies? : 2 ways (2C1) = desired result
Probability = 2/6 = 1/3
Alternative: Same question rephrased:What is the probability that the selected one character has moustaches?
Out of the given six, only two has moustaches (Jethalal, Mehta-saab)
Then principle remains the same as in Case #2
Case #3: One man and one woman[INDENT]Q. Modi has to select a team of 2 characters out of given six. What is the probability that it has one man and one woman?
[/INDENT]Again this is a combination problem, we've to select a 'committee' of two people. Jetha-Mehta (JM) is same as Mehta -Jetha (MJ)
Total results
How many ways can you select two characters out of given six?
= (6 x 5) / (2 x 1) =15 (=6C2)
How did we get this ^?
Your "combination" concept should be rock-solid now. If not,
read my previous PnC article again.
Desired resultSelection of one man and one woman.
Recall the very
first example on "fundamental counting"Jethalal had to pick up two trains. (Mumbai - A'bad and Ahmedabad- Kutch). Same principle is applied here
=[pick one man out of given 4] (multiply) [pick one woman out of given 2]
=4 x 2
=8 ways.
When "
AND" is asked. You
multiply the cases.
You can also look at this as a combination problem
Choose one man 'Committee' out of 4 men and choose one woman Committee out of 2 women.
=4C1 x 2C1
=4 x 2 = 8 ways.
Desired result = 8 ways.
Final answer
Probability = Desired result / Total results = 8/15
Case 4: "Atleast" one man is selectedQues. Direct Asit Modi has to select 2 characters out of given six. What is the probability at atleast one of them is a man.
When they ask "Atleast or Atmost" etc we've to break up the case.
Team of two actors can be formed in following fashion
1. 1 man and 1 woman. (Order doesn't matter, this is a Committee!)
2. Both men
3. Both women
Atleast 1 man in a team of two memebers means
= [1 man and 1 woman] OR [2 men]
Atmost 1 man in a team of two members
=[Zero man, 2 women] or [1 man, 1 woman]
When "OR" comes, we've to ADD (+) the probabilities.
Total results Is same : 6C2= 15 ways.
Desired results = [1 man 1 woman] (OR)+[ Two men]
Situation #1: One man and One womanDesired result =8 ways. ( we already did this in
Case #3)
Situation #2: Two menConcept is same as
Case #2There are four men: Jethalal, Mehta-saab, Bhide, Aiyyar
Keep them aside in a seperate 'talent-pool'
How many ways can you pick up 2 actors out of the given 4?
Combination problem
= (4 x 3) / 2 x 1
=6 ways.
Final answerProbability = Desired result divided by Total results
= (Situation #1 OR situation #2) / total result
= (8+6) / 15 ; because OR means addition (+)
=14/15
Alternative method: 1 MinusTotal sum of all probabilities =1 (according to theory)
We had to select 2 actors out of given 6. So gender wise three situations possible in this 'team'
1. Two men (MM)
2. Two women (FF)
3. One man and One Woman (MF)
Total probability (1)= MM + FM + MF
Our question was Atleast one man hence (MM+FM)
So, Probability of atleast one man
=1 minus probability of two women (FF)
MM +FM =1 - FF
So find the probability to two women getting selected?
Desired result= 2 women
Same as case#2
Keep Anjali and Babita in a separate talent-pool.
How many ways can you select two actresses out of the given two actresses?
Obviously 1 way. (2C2); because you'll have to take both of them!
Total result= already counted 6C2= 15
Probability (FF) = 1/15
So our question
= 1 - (1/15)
=14/15
Compare the answer. IT is same what we got in the first method of Case#4.
Case 5: Not getting selectedThis one is very easy but writing it just in case Alternative method of case #4 did not click your mind.
Ques. Direct Asit Modi wants to select one character out of the given six. What is the probability that Anjali will not be selected?
Method 1: Direct method
Total results= 6C1= 6 ways (to select 1 character out of given 6)
Desired results
We don't want Anjali in the selection so we keep Anjali aside and create a new talent pool of five remaining characters
(Jethalal, Mehta-saab, Bhide, Aiyyar and Babita-ji)
Pick any one out of this five and we're done, we'll satisfy the desired result that Anjali is not selected.
So, How many can you pick up one character out of five? = 5 ways (5C1)
Hence
Final probability = desired results divided by total results
=5/6
Indirect Method: One minus other probabilitiesAccording to theory, Total sum of all probabilities =1
So Probability of Anjali NOT getting selected
= 1 minus [Probability of Anjali getting selected]
Just like case #1, Probability of Anjali getting selected is 1/6
=1 - 1/6
=5/6
^Formula: P(E)=1-P(E')
Next Post: Cliched Questions from Probability Topic