Dear Readers, current affairs is an important component of several competitive exams such as the UPSC Civil Services Examination, SSC CGL, Bank PO & PSU entrance tests, etc. Therefore, understanding those terms/concepts which are in the news becomes critical for aspirants of most competitive exams. In our attempt to make your preparation easier and help you score better, we at PaGaLGuY bring you brief articles on trending phenomenon/ terms/ concepts. In this article, we will try to understand the term ‘El Nino’.

El Nino has been in the news recently as the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in its latest (April 2015) findings, has predicted a 70% chance of 2015 being an El Nino year. NOAA is the scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce which has the mandate to study the conditions of the oceans and the atmosphere and issue warnings as and when needed.

 What is El Nino?

* El Nino refers to a complex series of climatic changes caused by the presence of warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Ecuador and Peru. 

* This abnormal warming leads to increased evaporation and concentrated cloud formation activity around South America, causing heavy rains there. 

* The other end of tropical Pacific Ocean – Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Australia – is deprived of rain-bearing winds, resulting in low rainfall and drought. These effects may spread to India and its surrounding regions as well. 

Why is it called ‘El Nino’ and how long does it last? 

*In Spanish, El Nino means ‘Little Boy’ or ‘Boy (Christ) Child’. Fishermen off the Pacific coast in Southern America started using this name as this phenomenon occurred during the month of December (around the time of Christmas) roughly every 2 – 7 years.

* However, El Nino begins to form around the months of June and August. It reaches its peak strength between December and April and it weakens between May and July of the following year.

What is the impact of El Nino on various countries? 

* Due to El Nino, the coast of Northern Peru and Ecuador experiences warm and wet climate in the months of April – October. In extreme cases, this could lead to floods. Similarly, the southern part of Brazil and northern Argentina experience rainfall in spring. 

* The impact of El Nino is far stronger in South America than in North America.

* In North America, most El Nino winters are moderate in western Canada and in parts of the northern United States and are wet near the southern states from Texas to Florida. 

* El Nino is associated with below average winter and early summer spring rainfall over Eastern Australia. It also results in above average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.

* India has faced droughts in most El Nino years. For example, India had droughts in 1982, 1986, 1987, 2002, 2004 and 2009, all of which were El Nino years. 

* In India’s case, there have been some exceptions as well. For example, India had surplus monsoon rainfall in 1994 and in 1997 even though 1994 and 1997 were ‘Moderate’ and ‘Strong’ El Nino years respectively.  So, not all El Nino years have resulted in droughts in India. 

Similarly, not all drought years in India have been El Nino years. For example, 2014 was not an El Nino year but India faced a drought in this year.

Is this year going to be an El Nino year?

* As per the NOAA prediction in April 2015, there is 70% chance of 2015 being an El Nino year. Do note that the NOAA has predicted a weak El Nino this year.

* The Australian MET Bureau has also asserted that there is 70% chance of 2015 being an El Nino year.