The mock CAT season of this year is in its full bloom but it is not leaving many who are preparing for the CAT seriously too happy. It’s not the difficulty level of the test papers or ‘technical glitches’ at the mock CAT centers, but the percentiles they are getting that is irking them.

Many who are preparing for the CAT for the third or the forth time are realising than even though their absolute scores in the mocks have remained similar or even increased compared to the previous year, their percentiles aren’t getting any better. In fact, despite scoring more, the percentiles are often dropping. It has taken them a while to understand that this bizarre trend had nothing to do with faulty preparation, but the reducing number of people who were taking the mock tests.

With only five weeks to go for the CAT 2010 tests to start, the number of candidates taking the mock CATs conducted by several test preparation companies are seeing a major drop in comparison to previous years. Though the registration for CAT 2010 is still on, a reducing number of mock test takers could be an indicator of what to expect at the actual CAT.

In the last all-India mock CATs conducted by T.I.M.E. in mid-September, the ‘AIMCAT 1106’, the number of candidates appearing was in very close vicinity of 13,640. Participation in the three AIMCATs conducted before the 1106 had a meager population in the neighborhoods of 15,565 (AIMCAT 1107), 17,200 (AIMCAT 110 and 17,425 (AIMCAT 1109).

Compared to this in 2009, the number of candidates appearing for mock CATs were over 25,000 and in years before that when CAT was conducted in the paper-pencil format, the mock CATs have had a participation of as much as 30,000 to 32,000 candidates. The all-India mock conducted by IMS last week too had around 10,000 candidates appearing and around 13,000 candidates appeared in the mock CAT conducted by Career Launcher.

(Explanation of how the test-taker numbers were derived is written at the end.)

Kinjal Das, who will be appearing for CAT for the third time this year said, “Any national mock CAT until last year had at least 23,000 to 27,000 candidates participating. But this year that number has reduced to 15,000 to 17,000.”

How does a reducing population in mock CATs affect an aspirant? Say, if a candidate is ranked 5,000 among 30,000 then his percentile will be 83.33. But the same candidate if maintains his rank at 5,000, but the number of candidates drop to 20,000 then his percentile become 75. This huge variation in the percentile despite the same score and rank can be disheartening for many. Not all candidates know how many people appeared in a mock CAT. Without that number in perspective, percentile is half-knowledge. With reducing numbers, the value of mock CATs too is likely to be seen as diminutive. Unless of course, the number of test-takers for CAT 2010 too drops by an equal proportion as it is doing for mock CATs.

Arjun Chakravorty, Center Manager of IMS Learning Resources at Koramangala, Bangalore said, “The number of students who have enrolled with us for the CAT coaching this year has dropped marginally, but the quality of the candidates has improved. The candidates that have enrolled are focused and aspire management education by their own choice and not peer pressure.”

In a percentile-based competition such as this, the absence of non-serious aspirants can provide those whose performance would traditionally have been in the 70-90 percentile category a misrepresented idea of their preparation.

However, reducing mock population may not necessarily mean that the CAT is losing takers. Those analysing the trend also feel that the dip in the number of mock CAT takers is related to the fact that an increasing number of CAT takers have fulltime day jobs. Abhishek S, who is giving CAT a third attempt said, “There are two things that are happening. Firstly, as the CAT test dates have been advanced, the coaching classes are having to complete their courses and the tests in lesser time. There are two tests that are being conducted in one week which increases the pressure on any student. The working people thus opt out of these tests very frequently. The other thing is, even if there are tests conduced over the weekend, the slots are usually full within hours of the mock CAT being announced. If the working people do not register for the tests in time, their opportunity is lost in this case also.”

Unable to fit mock CATs offered by coaching institutes into their schedules, the working population are also opting for home-based mock tests delivered through the Internet by various websites.

Though the number of candidates appearing for the mock CAT might not be a sure shot indicator of the actual number of candidates who are attempting to bell the CAT 2010, one cannot not think about the dip in the number of CAT applicants in 2009 compared to that in CAT 2008. That gives rise to the big question: is it the beginning of the end of the MBA wave?

How the number of test takers in the mock CATs was calculated

Even if the coaching institutes don’t provide the number of students taking the test, one can still derive the approximate number of test takers with the help of the percentile they provide and the rank they give along with the results. A percentile is basically the percentage of people whom you have outscored. People who clear the sectional cut-offs and the overall cut-off are eligible for a rank in the Toppers List. So, if someone has a rank 15 at a score of 99.85 percentile, it means that, 0.15 percentile of the junta corresponds to 15 people. So, the total number of test takers comes out to be at least 10,000. Even if we assume that a few of the high scorers do miss the sectional cutoffs, the number won’t go way above the estimate.