Equity Markets

ankurbipinshah Says
I would love to learn technical analysis need some help


Let me tell you something about technical analysis. Even after you learn it, a lot of the times you have to mix and match between fundamental and technical.

Weirdly, if you look at trading history of some of world's best investors they rely mostly on fundamental analysis rather than on technical analysis and I tend to agree with them more often then not.

I think anyone who really wants to learn finance should ideally start out with economics and the right kind of economics. Its essential to say the least.
Let me tell you something about technical analysis. Even after you learn it, a lot of the times you have to mix and match between fundamental and technical.

Weirdly, if you look at trading history of some of world's best investors they rely mostly on fundamental analysis rather than on technical analysis and I tend to agree with them more often then not.

I think anyone who really wants to learn finance should ideally start out with economics and the right kind of economics. Its essential to say the least.


"technical analysis" is the most abused, BS and spam phrase used on internet. If you want to know about real TA visit: MTA - Investment Analyst Professionals - Chartered Market Technicians The whole HF industry and worlds billionaire Trading Hall of Fame - indiTraders - Forum for the Active Indian Trader use TA in some form
ankurbipinshah Says
I would love to learn technical analysis need some help

"How to Make Money Trading with Charts" by Ashwani Gujral

Ye padh lo. Haan, international standard nahi hai. Par apna market ke liye bahut acchha hai. Newbie ke liye. Bahot sara example diya hai..
"How to Make Money Trading with Charts" by Ashwani Gujral


I can rip off Mr. Gujral, with all due respects If anybody is interested, just tell me
punit.s Says
I can rip off Mr. Gujral, with all due respects If anybody is interested, just tell me

Hahaha I know...! Plz dont do that...!!!. Just said its good for a newbie. We hardly find a good technical analysis book in the context of Indian Market. Better something than nothing...! Aur use padhne me burai kya hai....!

A honest advise to all: When it comes to trading strategies, 'redundant information' is equivalent to 'misinformation'; becuase if you bet on redundant information, the market punishes you.

"How to Make Money Trading with Charts" by Ashwani Gujral

Ye padh lo. Haan, international standard nahi hai. Par apna market ke liye bahut acchha hai. Newbie ke liye. Bahot sara example diya hai..


Books not all that good.
Examples are retrofitted and even an idiot is a genius in hindsight.
When you look for patterns look for generalised patterns if any.

punit.s Says
"technical analysis" is the most abused, BS and spam phrase used on internet. If you want to know about real TA visit: MTA - Investment Analyst Professionals - Chartered Market Technicians The whole HF industry and worlds billionaire Trading Hall of Fame - indiTraders - Forum for the Active Indian Trader use TA in some form


Ofcourse everyone uses some form of TA but its over-rated by most newbies. Most people who have a proven track record including warren buffet, charles munger, sir john templeton, george soros,
rely much more heavily on fundamental analysis and economics rather than on pure technical analysis (ta).
but a guy called Larry Williams fascinates me, although i don't think he shares his secrets.

but a guy called Larry Williams fascinates me, although i don't think he shares his secrets.

Just do google search, tons of books and articles for beginners, from Mr. Williams :)

Actually there is nothing like being a puritan, whether it's about TA or FA, when it comes to trading as business in markets.
Just do google search, tons of books and articles for beginners, from Mr. Williams :)

Actually there is nothing like being a puritan, whether it's about TA or FA, when it comes to trading as business in markets.


Yes, I have seen some of his books but only his "long term secret to short term trading" was nice enough. Others are just recycling this same book. Nonetheless, the things written in the book don't exactly seem like 1000% return monthly that he seemed to have got over a year or two, Teaching the same to her daughter at age 16-So i hope he writes a better book before he passes away, same is true for people like buffet 😁 although enough has been write by and for him, he needs to write a definitive guide to markets as he sees it.

Another thing with george soros, Everyone keeps hearing about 1.1 billion he made in one evening in betting against the british pound but not enough people know about his 600 million losses. so absolutely no one is perfect.
an amazing quote by soros- "I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong... I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes."

But there is one thing that doesn't change - All most all major investors were either bachelors, masters or phd students in economics and thats no fluke, as i understand it.

Yeah, No Puritans, true.
DEVILISHANGEL Says
Nonetheless, the things written in the book don't exactly seem like 1000% return monthly that he seemed to have got over a year or two, Teaching the same to her daughter at age 16-So i hope he writes a better book before he passes away

I have a log of his trades with which he made 1000% return; will try to find out.

Actually during the same time period when he made those surreal trades to win the competition; he lost money in the account of his clients as a fund manager. He was booked by the SEC for misguiding investors with the talk about winning the trading championship :)

Not much impressed, in my teens use to dream about dating his daughter though 😁
punit.s Says
I have a log of his trades with which he made 1000% return; will try to find out.

Where did you get that kind of info?


Actually during the same time period when he made those surreal trades to win the competition; he lost money in the account of his clients as a fund manager. He was booked by the SEC for misguiding investors with the talk about winning the trading championship :)

Hmm and this is why its very hard to trust traders unless you have traded yourself.
Where did you get that kind of info?

not intended for the general public
............................................................
OK, things always get leaked out 😃
Directional Trading Styles used by Hedge Funds:
  1. Market Neutral - Securities Hedging: Invests equally in long and short equity portfolios generally in the same sectors of the market. Market risk is greatly reduced, but effective stock analysis and stock picking is essential to obtaining meaningful results. Leverage may be used to enhance returns. Usually low or no correlation to the market. Sometimes uses market index futures to hedge out systematic (market) risk. Relative benchmark index usually T-bills. Expected Volatility: Low
  2. Market Timing: Allocates assets among different asset classes depending on the manager's view of the economic or market outlook. Portfolio emphasis may swing widely between asset classes. Unpredictability of market movements and the difficulty of timing entry and exit from markets adds to the volatility of this strategy. Expected Volatility: High
  3. Opportunistic: Investment theme changes from strategy to strategy as opportunities arise to profit from events such as IPOs, sudden price changes often caused by an interim earnings disappointment, hostile bids, and other event-driven opportunities. May utilize several of these investing styles at a given time and is not restricted to any particular investment approach or asset class. Expected Volatility: Variable
  4. Multi Strategy: Investment approach is diversified by employing various strategies simultaneously to realize short- and long-term gains. Other strategies may include systems trading such as trend following and various diversified technical strategies. This style of investing allows the manager to overweight or underweight different strategies to best capitalize on current investment opportunities. Expected Volatility: Variable
  5. Special Situations: Invests in event-driven situations such as mergers, hostile takeovers, reorganizations, or leveraged buy outs. May involve simultaneous purchase of stock in companies being acquired, and the sale of stock in its acquirer, hoping to profit from the spread between the current market price and the ultimate purchase price of the company. May also utilize derivatives to leverage returns and to hedge out interest rate and/or market risk. Results generally not dependent on direction of market. Expected Volatility: Moderate
  6. Value: Invests in securities perceived to be selling at deep discounts to their intrinsic or potential worth. Such securities may be out of favour or underfollowed by analysts. Long-term holding, patience, and strong discipline are often required until the ultimate value is recognized by the market. Expected Volatility: Low - Moderate

I was just reading about arbitrage opportunities and heard some software CD's are being sold in the market which will execute trades on your behalf as the opportunities arise... Has anyone heard about this??
As it is automated, it would be much faster than a human.. so greater probability of executing the trade.. as arbitrage opportunities disappear fast

I was just reading about arbitrage opportunities and heard some software CD's are being sold in the market which will execute trades on your behalf as the opportunities arise... Has anyone heard about this??
As it is automated, it would be much faster than a human.. so greater probability of executing the trade.. as arbitrage opportunities disappear fast



yes, heard a lot about it but you need to have enough surplus of cash + huge heart to really go for it plus its not really recommended for retail investors infact, is it even possible for a retail investor in India? to use automated opportunities in arbitrage? I certainly don't think its reliable enough, what if there is a technical glitch? which is a possibility in the indian trading scene.
I was just reading about arbitrage opportunities and heard some software CD's are being sold in the market which will execute trades on your behalf as the opportunities arise... Has anyone heard about this??
As it is automated, it would be much faster than a human.. so greater probability of executing the trade.. as arbitrage opportunities disappear fast


I dont think its realistic for a retail investor. Also huge capital requirement is a constraint.

why its unrealistic.. As there are no risks .. its ideal for retail investors I think..
Why would you say huge capital requirements for it ... 3-4 Lacs should be fine to start with I suppose plus the leverage you get from your broker

why its unrealistic.. As there are no risks .. its ideal for retail investors I think..
Why would you say huge capital requirements for it ... 3-4 Lacs should be fine to start with I suppose plus the leverage you get from your broker



As far as my knowledge goes, its also illegal in India for a retail investor to automate his/her trades :)
You can only buy such a software if
a)You are a direct exchange member
b)You have a customised platform/trading interface that can take the automated signals and induce trade on your behalf. Since its illegal, No brokerage provides this kind of compatibility.

In my mind, Its good that SEBI has these norms in place because it only caters to speculators and short-time investors, both of which are unwelcoming to any society or its companies. The basic reason for stock market is to infuse wealth in good companies, punish the bad ones, give impetus to growth of good companies and democratise money 😃

Most people take to market for speculation but thats not the most profitable way out because if that were the case then you wouldn't hear about people who live so frugally that they only drive second hand cars pounded by hailstones after being named best fund managers of the world and getting their names in the top of the forbes rich list. Investment is a habit, if you nurture good habits the market will gift you and if you nurture bad ones then the market will punish .

Recently enough, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 998.50 points or 9.2 % which was the highest intraday decline since its inception in May 26, 1896 because of which there was a huge uproar when the markets crashed due to such automated trading triggers which basically tipped automated selling signals on and sent the market down in a spiral, because of the same US-the capitol of capitalism-for the first time in its history is going to test financial market circuit breakers which will stop the trading of a particular share for 5 mins when its price fluctuates by 10% up or down in a 5 minute period.

But what in my mind is not speculation or short-term investing?
Something which you thoroughly understand or can predict (but the mathematical probability of which isn't 100%)
Ex - Forex trading is heavily related to economics and news.
like
a) When Lehman went bankrupt, traders sold off positions in stocks and commodities and had to hide in US treasuries (majorly) so the $ went up.
b) When Bernanke said, the US fed was being too generous in printing money-thereby devaluing the dollar- so the $ went down.

Both the situations were highly predictable and patterned.

As an aside, this is why i reiterate India needs more Economists (and not just engineers) who stay in India (and not chair Harvard or Imperial professor chairs 😉 ) to understand the deep implications of such things. Unfortunately, none of that is going to happen anytime soon and atleast the people who understand economics are not much welcome in our MBA society, where as, like i always say, harvard takes in 40% just pure humanities (mostly economics) and 26% pure business grads, about 22% pure science and about 11% engineers-if i divide equally (Don't get me wrong, I don't want to be controversial here).

There is also a big golden rule of the markets, as i see it - Anything that has no risk is either illegal or is of no value 😉
dinesh_hem2000 Says
why its unrealistic.. As there are no risks .. its ideal for retail investors I think..


market netural does not mean absence of risk!
many have misunderstood the concept of arbitrage

In markets if you are not willing to take risk there is nothing better than the risk free return that is what bank gives on savings account

Some amusement BTW
Ashwani Gujral Complaints
ashwanigujral.com Complaints
http://www.taindia.memberlodge.org/